{"id":508633,"date":"2024-11-13T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spacenews.com\/?p=508633"},"modified":"2024-11-11T12:58:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T17:58:50","slug":"cleaner-future-for-leo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spacenews.com\/cleaner-future-for-leo\/","title":{"rendered":"A cleaner future for LEO"},"content":{"rendered":"

Space sustainability is attracting far more attention than in previous decades.<\/p>

\u201cHistorically, just getting people to think about it has been a problem,\u201d said Marlon Sorge, executive director of the Aerospace Corp. Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies. \u201cAs challenging as it is keeping track of what everybody\u2019s doing now, at least they\u2019re doing something.\u201d<\/p>

Much of the increase in activity in low-Earth orbit, from 900 operational satellites in 2019 to about 10,000 today, has been driven by a single company: SpaceX.<\/p>

\u201cFrom an economics perspective, many of the risks are internalized to that company,\u201d said Jamie Morin, Aerospace Corp. vice president of defense strategic space. \u201cWe\u2019re about to go through a period where low-Earth orbit gets much more complex with probably two or three big [People\u2019s Republic of China] constellations, at least one more U.S. big constellation, possibly some European big constellations and maybe even some African big constellations.\u201d<\/p>

Since no international agency oversees space traffic management, public and private organizations are devising their own sustainability strategies. Many were shared through papers and panel discussions at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Milan in October, where the theme was Responsible Space for Sustainability.<\/p>

De Facto Standard<\/h3>

Japan\u2019s Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA is funding active debris removal.<\/p>

Under a 12 billion yen ($78 million) JAXA contract awarded in August, Tokyo-based Astroscale is preparing to send a robotic spacecraft to low-Earth orbit in 2028 to grab the defunct H-2A upper stage that the company inspected during a precursor mission over the summer. The goal is to reach the rocket body and pull it into the atmosphere.<\/p>

\"\"
Space debris photographed in orbit by Astroscale\u2019s ADRAS-J spacecraft in June. Credit: Astroscale<\/figcaption><\/figure>

The Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan 2 mission provides an opportunity to demonstrate new technology. It also may \u201cset a de facto standard,\u201d encouraging others to remove space objects and create a new market, said Ikuko Kuriyama, visiting researcher at the University of Tokyo Institute for Future Initiatives and senior JAXA administrator.<\/p>

What\u2019s more, active debris removal \u201cwill help the whole of the space economy to exist and maybe not to not exist,\u201d said Hermann Ludwig Moeller, director of the European Space Policy Institute in Vienna.<\/p>

Zero Debris<\/h3>

The U.K. Space Agency and the European Space Agency are also paying Astroscale UK and Switzerland\u2019s ClearSpace to conduct active debris removal missions. In addition, many of Europe\u2019s leading space organizations have joined ESA in signing the Zero Debris Charter, a non-binding agreement intended to prevent a net increase in space debris by 2030. To date, about 100 countries, companies and research organizations and international agencies have signed on.<\/p>

\u201cWe issued an internal instruction for all ESA future missions to meet that goal,\u201d said Frederic Nordlund, head of ESA\u2019s European and External Relations Department. \u201cIt\u2019s a very tough one.\u201d<\/p>

ESA\u2019s technical requirements for reducing debris will be revised annually to guide managers toward the 2030 goal. In a related effort, ESA will send a small satellite to low-Earth orbit in 2027 to break apart.<\/p>

\u201cWhy are we doing that? Because in that satellite we have 200 sensors that will tell us about reentry behavior,\u201d Nordlund said. \u201cWe will share that information with everybody in order to meet the five-year reentry requirement.\u201d<\/p>

Name and Shame<\/h3>

Alongside space agencies, nonprofits are conducting space sustainability studies.<\/p>

Mitre Corp. researchers presented a series of papers at IAC, including one that discussed how the lessons of behavioral economics could improve space security and sustainability.<\/p>

\u201cIt\u2019s providing incentives to the space actors to take a different route when it comes to designing space architecture or sharing information,\u201d Zhanna Malekos Smith, professor for the United Nations Institute for Training and Research. \u201cOur paper takes the position against heavy-handed regulation and encourages nudges, incentives, funding and public recognition.\u201d<\/p>

Through forums like IAC, it\u2019s important to recognize \u201cgood actors for promoting international collaboration or sustainability as a way to reinforce positive norms,\u201d Malekos Smith said.<\/p>

It\u2019s equally important to name and shame bad actors, said Mitre lead economist Thomas Groesbeck.<\/p>

\u201cCompanies compare themselves to their peers,\u201d Groesbeck said. \u201cIf you\u2019re doing something that\u2019s somewhat expensive and your peers aren\u2019t doing it and they don\u2019t suffer, you feel like a sucker. It\u2019s important to either have some sort of honor for doing the right thing or some sort of shame for not doing it.\u201d<\/p>

Orbital Carrying Capacity<\/h3>

Another Mitre paper suggested altitude-based classes for low-Earth orbit along the lines of aviation airspace classes.<\/p>

\u201cJust in the last five years, we\u2019ve gone from talking about a future with a few thousand operational satellites to one of tens or even hundreds of thousands,\u201d said Ruth Stillwell, executive director of consulting firm Aerospace Policy Solutions, who worked as an air traffic controller for 25 years. \u201cThe issue of carrying capacity has landed squarely in our laps, but it is important to recognize that LEO is not a homogenous domain.\u201d<\/p>

The proposed orbital classification system would establish higher standards in areas of high demand.<\/p>

\u201cLike aviation, classification is not only a safety tool but can also be used as a means to increase carrying capacity of a defined orbital volume,\u201d Stillwell said.<\/p>

The proposed model calls for constellations with more than 1,000 satellites operating at altitudes between 400 and 650 kilometers to have robust maneuvering capabilities. In contrast, no maneuvering requirements would be placed on constellations of fewer than 10 satellites flying below 400 kilometers.<\/p>

\u201cLike aviation, it creates a means to establish higher standards in areas of high demand, while ensuring there are still opportunities available for less capable users to operate,\u201d Stillwell said. \u201cAnother advantage of the airspace classification approach is that it is fully transparent, giving operators the opportunity to weigh the cost of increased capability against the benefit of airspace access in determining their mission profile.\u201d<\/p>

\"\"<\/a>
A draft LEO classification system proposed by Mitre Corp. dividing LEO into different altitudes that would establish higher standards of entry for spacecraft operating in congested areas of higher demand or lower tolerance of risk for collisions. Source: Mitre Corp. Credit: SpaceNews<\/figcaption><\/figure>

Cubesats and Constellations<\/h3>

The idea that regulations should vary based on satellite or constellation size came up repeatedly at IAC.<\/p>

Morin pointed out that a university\u2019s cubesat ejected from the International Space Station poses far less risk to space sustainability than a constellation of 10,000 commercial satellites.<\/p>

\u201cIt makes a great deal of sense\u201d that a constellation of 10,000 satellites \u201cshould be subject to significant scrutiny for the effects of those systems on sustainability,\u201d Morin said. \u201cBut we don\u2019t need to do that for everyone. If we did do that for the new entrants, we would essentially lock in the current participants and that\u2019s unlikely to be helpful for the long-term dynamism of space research or the space economy.\u201d<\/p>

Moeller agreed that new requirements should be established to mitigate the risk that collisions pose to space systems and, in turn, to all the social and economic benefits people on Earth derive from space.<\/p>

\u201cWe have the true requirement to put things into frameworks that you can only launch things if you comply with certain requirements,\u201d Moeller said. It\u2019s also important, he added, to ensure that any new requirements are \u201capplied to the maximum extent possible across the oceans, in different world regions, so nobody is feeling handicapped.\u201d<\/p>

Global Rules<\/h3>

Establishing and enforcing global rules may prove difficult since there is no space counterpart to the International Civil Aviation Organization.<\/p>

Stillwell suggested that launch states, which are responsible for authorizing and continually supervising the space activities of nongovernmental entities under Article 6 of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, could enforce an orbital classification system.<\/p>

Even if states are not yet equipped to provide a high level of continuing supervision of satellite operators, \u201cthe concept can be developed within the existing treaty frameworks and grow to meet the demands of the industry it seeks to serve,\u201d Stillwell said.<\/p>

This article first appeared in the November 2024 issue of SpaceNews Magazine.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Space sustainability is attracting far more attention than in previous decades. \u201cHistorically, just getting people to think about it has been a problem,\u201d said Marlon Sorge, executive director of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11021,"featured_media":508639,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4143,4151],"tags":[2239,3091,12900,825,2956,2436,12899],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[986],"class_list":["post-508633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-the-magazine","category-policy-politics-archive","tag-astroscale","tag-clearspace","tag-mitre-corp","tag-orbital-debris","tag-space-sustainability","tag-starlink","tag-zero-debris-charter","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nA cleaner future for LEO - 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